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BP raises global energy demand in 2030

17th January 2013

BP report says developing countries helm energy demand growth through 2030, unconventional resources lead the way

BP raises global energy demand in 2030
World energy demand will rise 36 per cent in the next 19 years, with the growth coming almost exclusively from developing countries

BP raised its estimate of global energy demand in 2030 in its latest Energy Outlook 2030 report, and predicted that shale natural gas, tight oil and biofuels will play an increasingly important role in meeting the world's energy needs.

World energy demand will rise 36 per cent in the next 19 years, with the growth coming almost exclusively from developing countries, to 16.72 billion million tonnes of oil equivalent, BP said in the report.

The new demand estimate is 0.5 per cent above last year's estimate of 16.63 billion metric tonnes and represents an average projected growth of 1.6 per cent per year over the period.

The demand forecast is broadly in line with that published by the International Energy Agency, which in November estimated global energy demand would rise 35 per cent from 12.7 million metric tonnes of oil equivalent in 2010 to 17.2 million metric tonnes of oil equivalent in 2035.

Growing production from unconventional sources of oil such as tight oil, oil sands and biofuels is expected to provide all of the net growth in global oil supply to 2020 and account for more than 70 per cent of growth to 2030, BP said.

Largely as a result if the boom in unconventional oil and flat consumption, the US will become almost self-sufficient in energy by 2030, with net imports falling by about 70 per cent, BP said.