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Global gas demand in transport may rise by 2020

31st January 2014

Wood Mackenzie describes that rising disparities in oil and gas prices, as well as increased environmental restrictions on emissions, are making gas a more ideal option in the global transport sector

Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) will contribute to the rise in global gas demand

Wood Mackenzie, commercial intelligence provider for the energy, metals and mining industries, reveals that rising disparities in oil and gas prices, in addition to increased environmental restrictions on emissions, are making gas a more ideal option in the global transport sector.

This includes Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) on roads, marine liquefied natural gas (LNG) in ships and perhaps  railroads.  

Noel Tomnay, head of global gas research for Wood Mackenzie explains, “Gas has traditionally played a niche role in global transport but it is now garnering greater attention due to two principal drivers. First, oil and gas price differentials are now making investment in gas re-fuelling infrastructure worthwhile and second, increased environmental restrictions on emissions are encouraging wider global uptake.”

Tomnay added that “Global gas demand in the transport sector will grow from nearly 40 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to over 160 bcm in 2030, increasing from 1.2% to some 3.4% of global gas demand according to our forecasts.”  

Wood Mackenzie has predicted that demand in transport on the oil sector will grow to 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2020 and then double to 3.0 mb/d by 2030. They describe that “In 2012, gas in transport was equivalent to about 700 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) of oil globally.” 

The company also believes that China “will remain the single largest market for gas in transport, with 45 bcm by 2030.”

Tomnay described how demand in China “is presently being propelled by a combination of winning factors. These include the most favourable economics, due to the low cost of vehicles; strong vehicle market growth encouraging fleet investments in gas; and financial support from regional governments, keen to reduce emissions in cities where particulate pollution and smog is a growing problem.” 

He concluded that “NGV demand could begin to accelerate rapidly, as the market matures, the incremental costs come down, the technology becomes more mainstream in the culture and oil-gas spread persist in the long run.”

 

 

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